CEO and investor expectations for growth, M&A and hiring remain high but are tempered by concernsaboutglobaltrade, geopoliticaluncertaintyandacceleratingtechnologicaldisruption.
Investorsgrowing impatientontimingforROIoncorporate AIinvestments, according to a new survey by Teneo
— 73% of CEOs and 82% of investors expect the global economy to improve in 2026.
— The U.S. remains the most attractive market in the world for investment.
— Percentage of large-cap CEOs projecting growth is down 20 points year-over-year, while mid-cap CEOs and investors remain overwhelmingly bullish on outlook.
— 78% of CEOs predict increased global M&A in the year ahead.
— AI spending will continue to rise in 2026, with 68% of CEOs increasing investment.
— 53% of investors expect ROI from AI in six months or less, while only 16% of large-cap CEOs believe they can deliver on that timeline.
— CEOs and investors predict AI initiatives will drive increased hiring in 2026, as businesses reshape their workforce to power AI ambitions and accelerate the race for ROI.
— India's emergence continues, as CEOs believe the country will surpass China in strategic importance within 10 years.
Global CEOs and investors remain confident in the growth outlook heading into 2026, anticipating an increase in domestic and international investment, hiring and M&A activity, according to a new study by Teneo, theglobal CEO advisory firm. The annual survey examined the views of more than 350 global public company CEOs and 400 institutional investors representing approximately $19 trillion USD in company and portfolio value.
Overall, 73% of CEOs and 82% of investors expect the global economy to improve in 2026. However, reflecting the realities of the global operating environment, large-cap CEO confidence has declined 20 points year-over-year, with expectations tempered by concerns about global trade, geopolitical uncertainty and technological disruption. Meanwhile, mid-cap CEOs and investors remain overwhelmingly positive in their outlook for growth and three out of four CEOs and investors expect to see more M&A activity in the year ahead.
“Following record CEO and investor confidence in the wake of the U.S. elections last year, we continuetoseeoptimism for 2026withmost expectingatleastashort-term increaseinhiringas well as increased M&A activity and international and domestic investment,” said Paul Keary, CEO of Teneo. “The U.S. remains the most attractive market in the world for investment, with policies – such as those around technological advancement and regulatory streamlining – creating a pro-growth environment. Companies have also become more resilient to disruption over the last few years, helping to underpin their confidence.”
“AI spending is set to rise again in 2026, with 68% of CEOs planning to increase their investment,” said Ursula Burns, Chairwoman of Teneo. “Along with that investment, an increase in new skilled hires across all seniority levels will help deliver on corporate AI ambitions. Investors, however, are becoming increasingly impatient for ROI on these AI investments, creating a tension that will be important to watch in the year ahead.”
Keysurveyfindingsinclude:
GrowthOutlook:MeasuredConfidence:73%ofCEOsand82%ofinvestors expectthe global economy to improve in 2026 compared to 77% and 86% in 2025, respectively.
— Investors remain bullish about access to funding from equity markets (41% very optimistic), the affordability of debt levels (45% very optimistic) and access to the debt market (41% very optimistic).
— More than 80% of both CEOs and investors cite recent policy changes related to technological advancement and regulatory streamlining as being helpful to their business.
— Strong M&A optimism persists, with three out of four CEOs and investors expecting to see more activity in 2026.
— CEOs representing the healthcare and resources industries are most optimistic about the M&A outlook, followed closely by peers in industrials and technology.
— Both CEOs and investors cite high capital costs as the primary barrier to M&A execution.
GlobalizationRecalibrates:CEOs(60%)andinvestors(57%)agreethatdeglobalizationwill accelerate in 2026; CEOs believe India will surpass China in terms of strategic importance within 10 years.
— China's market size, manufacturing and supply chain strength, and technology and innovation leadership continue to make the country an extremely important priority for both CEOs and investors today and over the next five years.
— CEOs view India as on the rise over the next decade – as a demand engine and talent powerhouse, with market growth and innovation set to drive global competitiveness long term.
— CEOs and investors are evenly split over whether the state of geopolitics today is a unique and temporary phenomenon that can be navigated as such, versus the start of a long-term reordering of the status quo.
— Along with technology and supply chain, geopolitics remains a top concern for global CEOs and investors as they prepare for continued disruption in 2026.
SeekingROI,AISpendingSoars: AIisthefastestgrowing investmentareain2026,with68% of CEOs planning to increase spending.
— 88% of CEOs and 84% of investors believe AI is helping mitigate or navigate businesses through disruption.
— 84% of large-cap CEOs predict ROI for new AI initiatives will take longer than six months to achieve, while 53% of investors expect to see ROI in six months or less.
— Fewer than half of AI projects are ROI-positive; however, gains are being made across internal efficiency, administrative and customer-facing applications.
— Beyond ROI, CEOs and investors are both seeing the most success across marketing and customer service, while applications that pose the greatest potential risk and complexity (security, legal and HR) remain the biggest challenges.
AI Reshaping, Not Replacing the Workforce, Yet: Most CEOs expect AI to drive hiring in 2026,with67%predictinganincreaseinentry-levelheadcount and58%forseniorleadership. BusinessesarereshapingtheworkforceintheneartermtogettoAI ROIfasteranddeliveron business priorities, but this does not signal a long-term upward curve.
— CEOs are prioritizing AI augmentation (50%) and upskilling talent (46%) in 2026, reflecting a strategic dual focus on automation and human capability.
— The overwhelming majority of CEOs cite AI, innovation and agility as essential skill sets for the next generation of CEOs.
— Creativity is cited as the most important ability leaders will need from their executive team, underscoring that the future of leadership does not just rest on technological maturity and skill.
Teneo's Vision 2026 CEO and Investor Outlook Survey was conducted by the firm's in-house data, insights and analytics team. The survey includes the views of more than 750 global public company CEOs and institutional investors representing approximately $19 trillion USD in market cap and AUM. The CEOs surveyed represent a global distribution of publicly traded companies with a minimum annual revenue of $1 billion USD or greater. Investors surveyed include aglobal sampling of professional investors in investment banking, institutional investing, venture investing, asset management, private equity and hedge funds. Research was conducted between October 14th and November 10th, 2025.
Formoreinformationandtodownload fullsurveyresults, visitteneo.com/Vision2026.
AboutTeneo Teneoistheglobal CEOadvisoryfirm.Wepartner withourclientsglobally todogreatthingsfor a better future.
Drawing upon our global team and expansive network of senior advisors, we provide advisory services across our five business segments on a stand-alone or fully integrated basis to help our clients solve complex business challenges. Our clients include a significant number of the Fortune 100 and FTSE 100, as well as other corporations, financial institutions and organizations.
Our full range of advisory services includes strategic communications, investor relations, financial transactions and restructuring, management consulting, physical and cyber risk, organizational design, board and executive search, geopolitics and government affairs, corporate governance andESG.
Thefirmhasmorethan1,700employees locatedin45+officesaround theworld. For more information about Teneo, please visit teneo.com.
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