— September's new-vehicle sale pace is expected to finish near 16.2 million, up from last year's 15.8 million level and higher than August's 16.1 million.
— Q3 sales volume is expected to reach 4.14 million, down from Q2 but higher by 6.2% year over year. Cox Automotive is adjusting its full-year forecast higher, as sales momentum continues.
— Electric vehicle (EV) sales in Q3 are expected to hit a record of 409,000 as buyers rush to close deals before government-backed incentives end. The prior record was Q4 2024, with 365,824 units sold.
September new-vehicle sales are expected to show a resilient market that continues to shake off significant policy changes and economic uncertainty. The September new-vehicle SAAR, or seasonally adjusted selling rate, is expected to finish near 16.2 million, an increase from last year's 15.8 level and a slight uptick from last month's 16.1 million pace. Sales volume is expected to rise 6% from last year but decline 14.9% from the previous month due to three fewer selling days.
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“The new-vehicle sales pace has been surprisingly strong this summer and through the third quarter as uncertainty around tariff policy has decreased,” said Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive. “Continued low inflation and unemployment rates, coupled with a strong stock market, have kept consumers in a buying mood. A key contributor to sales in recent months has been an increase in EV sales, as buyers rush to market before the $7,500 tax credits expire at the end of September.”
September 2025 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast
1Cox Automotive Industry Insights data
Q3 Electric Vehicle Sales Poised to Set Record With a surge of EV buyers in market before the end of government-supported tax incentives, Cox Automotive is forecasting that a record 410,000 EVs will be sold in the third quarter, a significant increase (21.4%) year over year and a jump of more than 30% compared to Q2. The share of EV sales in the third quarter will likely be close to 10% of total sales, a record. The previous EV sales peak in the U.S. was Q4 2024, when 365,824 EVs were sold, accounting for 8.7% of total new-vehicle sales.
“The federal tax credit was a key catalyst for EV adoption, and its expiration marks a pivotal moment,” said Stephanie Valdez Streaty, director of Industry Insights at Cox Automotive. “This shift will test whether the electric vehicle market is mature enough to thrive on its own fundamentals or still needs support to expand further.” Cox Automotive expects EV sales to slow notably in Q4, but long-term sales growth will continue. For more on what's next, read Valdez Streaty's latest post: After the Credits: How EV Adoption Advances When Incentives Fade.
Q3 and Year-to-Date 2025 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast Cox Automotive is forecasting Q3 2025 new-vehicle sales to climb year over year by 6.2%, although they are projected to finish lower compared to Q2 by 1.6%. The year-over-year volume gains in the market are expected to be driven almost entirely by the four biggest automakers – General Motors, Toyota Motor Corporation, Ford Motor Company, and Hyundai Motor Company. Cox Automotive forecasts the “Big Four” in Q3 to post combined sales gains of 11.2% year over year. The rest of the industry is expected to be higher by 0.1%. Year to date, the story remains the same, with the Big Four forecasted to gain 9.1 % while the other automakers decline by 2%.
Q3 2025 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast
1Cox Automotive Industry Insights data
Chesbrough added, “Thesales pace in the new-vehicle market is expected to wane in the coming months, as more headwinds gather. Sales of EVs are likely to decline significantly, and market conditions for other vehicles will become more challenging in the near future. More tariffed products are replacing existing inventory, and prices are expected to be pushed higher as automakers pass along higher import costs. Still, the market's strength in Q3 has improved our overall outlook.”
Cox Automotive is raising its full-year forecast range to between 15.8 and 16.4 million, while increasing the baseline number to 16.1 million, the likely outcome for full-year sales. At the end of Q2, Cox Automotive had adjusted its baseline forecast to 15.7 million, but healthy sales and the large surge in EV volume during Q3 have led the Cox Automotive team to shift its outlook. Forecasts for both fleet sales and new retail sales have been adjusted higher. With an expected decline in EV leasing in Q4, the lease penetration forecast was moved lower, from 25% to 24% for the Q3 forecast. The forecast for used-retail sales and sales of CPO vehicles were adjusted higher.
“We are expecting a slowing in Q4,” noted Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke. “And that Q4 pace is likely to set the pace for 2026. The modest slowing is driven by supply shifts and constraints from the impact of tariffs and the expected decline in EVs sales. In Q4 and next year, there remains the chance of upside, but the upside comes with the risk of more price pressure in the form of higher incentives if automakers over produce rather than adjusting to what the market wants and can afford.”
About Cox AutomotiveCox Automotive is the world's largest automotive services and technology provider. Fueled by the largest breadth offirst-party data fed by 2.3 billion online interactions a year, Cox Automotive tailors leading solutions for car shoppers,auto manufacturers, dealers, lenders and fleets. The company has 29,000+ employees on five continents and a portfolio of industry-leading brands that include Autotrader®,Kelley BlueBook®, Manheim®, vAuto®,Dealertrack®,NextGear Capital™, CentralDispatch® and FleetNet America®. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately owned, Atlanta-based company with $23billion in annual revenue. Visitcoxautoinc.comor connect via@CoxAutomotiveonX,CoxAutoIncon Facebook orCox-Automotive-Incon LinkedIn.
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