The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for the US declined by 0.7% in March 2025 to 100.5 (2016=100), after a decline of 0.2% (revised up from -0.3%) in February. The LEI also fell by 1.2% in the six-month period ending in March 2025, a smaller rate of decline than its -2.3% contraction over the previous six months (March-September 2024).
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“The US LEI for March pointed to slowing economic activity ahead,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “March's decline was concentrated among three components that weakened amid soaring economic uncertainty ahead of pending tariff announcements: 1) consumer expectations dropped further, 2) stock prices recorded their largest monthly decline since September 2022, and 3) new orders in manufacturing softened. That said, the data does not suggest that a recession has begun or is about to start. Still, the Conference Board downwardly revised our US GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.6%, which is somewhat below the economy's potential. The slower projected growth rate reflects the impact of deepening trade wars, which may result in higher inflation, supply chain disruptions, less investing and spending, and a weaker labor market.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index®(CEI) for the US increased by 0.1% in March 2025 to 114.4 (2016=100), after a 0.3% increase in February. The CEI rose by 0.8% over the six-month period between September 2024 and March 2025, up slightly from its 0.7% growth over the previous six months. The CEI's four component indicators-payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production-are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. Industrial production, which has declined for the first time since November of 2024, was the only negative contributor in March.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index®(LAG) for the US decreased by 0.1% to 119.1 (2016=100) in March 2025, after a 0.3% increase in February. Despite the monthly downtick, the LAG's six-month growth rate remained positive at 0.7% between September 2024 and March 2025-a reversal of its -0.7% decline over the previous six months (March-September 2024).
The next release is scheduled for Monday, May 19, 2025, at 10 A.M. ET.
About The Conference BoardLeading Economic Index®(LEI) and Coincident Economic Index®(CEI) for the USThe composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component.
The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates-or “leads”-turning points in the business cycle by around seven months.
The ten components of the Leading Economic Index®for the US are:
— Average weekly hours in manufacturing
— Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
— Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials
— ISM® Index of New Orders
— Manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
— Building permits for new private housing units
— S&P 500® Index of Stock Prices
— Leading Credit Index™
— Interest rate spread (10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds rate)
— Average consumer expectations for business conditions
The four components of theCoincident Economic Index®for the US are:
— Payroll employment
— Personal income less transfer payments
— Manufacturing and trade sales
— Industrial production
To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/
About The Conference BoardThe Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What's Ahead™. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org
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SOURCE The Conference Board
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