In the news release, HarrisX Accurately Calls Five of Seven Presidential Battleground States and Outperforms the Polling Industry in the 2024 U.S. Elections, issued Nov. 14, 2024 by HarrisX over PR Newswire, we are advised by the company that the third subheadline, third paragraph and seventh paragraph should all read “49%-48%” rather than “46%-45%” as originally issued inadvertently. The complete, corrected release follows:
HarrisX Accurately Calls Five of Seven Presidential Battleground States and Outperforms the Polling Industry in the 2024 U.S. Elections
Preliminary results from 2024 U.S. presidential election affirms HarrisX as one of the most accurate U.S. pollsters
HarrisX battleground polling correctly called 5 out of 7 states, on average within 1.6 percentage points from the actual results in these states
HarrisX national polling called a close race for Donald Trump at 49%-49% among likely voters and 49%-48% among all registered voters
Following two highly accurate presidential election cycles, HarrisX unveils its interactive Election & Politics Hub, furthering the company’s commitment to polling critical elections and events with accuracy
HarrisX – a Stagwell Inc. (STGW) company,named the most accurate pollster in the 2020 U.S. presidential election, continued its track record of accurate polling in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election.
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HarrisX polling projected the correct winner in five out of seven battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin. HarrisX final polling data, on average, came within 1.6 percentage points of the actual results across the five states, under the margin of error and outperforming the 538 Polling Industry Average. The odds ratio accuracy for each of these states was above 0.95 and outperformed the industry average (see tables below for a full explanation of this analysis of polls).
Further, HarrisX national polling demonstrated significant accuracy across its various horserace permutations: a 49%-49% tie among likely voters (with an odds ratio of 0.96) and 49%-48% among registered voters (with a near perfect odds ratio of 0.98).
This achievement reaffirms the commitment of HarrisX to provide reliable, data-driven insights that the public and media can trust in the United States and around the globe.
“Our accuracy is our currency. HarrisX is therefore immensely proud to have called two back-to-back United States presidential elections correctly, ranking among the top pollsters in the country” said Dritan Nesho, CEO and chief pollster at HarrisX. Nesho added: “This accuracy is increasingly important with A.I. becoming the dominant interface between those seeking information and the data sources made available to them.”
Outperforming the Polling Industry in 2024
Prior to the election, the FiveThirtyEight election model predicted the average polling error to be 3.8 percentage points across the seven battleground states. HarrisX polling came within 2.2 percentage points of the actual results across the seven states and within 1.6 percentage points across the five states the polling company called correctly for Donald Trump. HarrisX outperformed both the predicted polling error and the aggregated final polling averages as published by FiveThirtyEight.
Winner Margins
HarrisX Final Poll 538 Industry Actual Result HarrisX vs
Average Industry:
More Accurate
National* TIE Harris +1.2 Trump + 2.0 HarrisX
States Georgia Trump +2.2 Trump +0.8 Trump +2.2 HarrisX
With 95%+
ballots counted
Wisconsin Trump +0.4 Harris +1 Trump +0.8 HarrisX
Arizona** Trump +3.5 Trump +2.1 Trump +5.6 HarrisX
Michigan Harris +0.8 Harris +1.0 Trump +1.5 HarrisX
Nevada Trump +1.0 Trump +0.3 Trump +3.1 HarrisX
North Carolina Trump +0.2 Trump +0.9 Trump +3.4 Industry
Pennsylvania Harris +3.5 Harris +0.2 Trump +2.1 Industry
* Final votes still to be tallied, with the final expected presidential margin to become closer as states like California likely
to give Harris a boost in the current national numbers.
** Ballot counts still pending, at time of reporting in Arizona 92% of votes counted
Percentage Point Difference From Final Results vs Actual Results
HarrisX Final 538 Industry HarrisX vs
Poll Average Industry:
More Accurate
National* 2.0% 3.2% HarrisX
States Georgia 0.0% 1.5% HarrisX
With 95%+
ballots counted
Wisconsin 0.4% 1.8% HarrisX
Arizona 2.1% 3.4% HarrisX
Michigan 2.3% 2.5% HarrisX
Nevada 2.1% 2.9% HarrisX
North Carolina 3.2% 2.5% Industry
Pennsylvania 5.6% 2.3% Industry
Average difference in GA, WI, AZ, NV, and 1.6% 2.4% HarrisX
NC from election result
Average difference from election result in 2.2% 2.4% HarrisX
all Battleground States
Battleground States called correctly (/7) 5 4 HarrisX
*Final votes still to be tallied, with the final expected presidential margin to become closer as states like California likely to give Harris a boost in the current national numbers.
HarrisX also outperformed the polling industry in the national polling, showing the two candidates tied at 49 percent each among likely voters and Trump leading at 49%-48% among all registered voters. The average of national polls showed Vice President Harris winning the national vote by 1.2 percentage points.
Unveiling the HarrisX Elections & Politics Hub and Ongoing Tracking for US Elections
To enhance the public’s understanding of the 2024 election landscape and beyond, HarrisX has unveiled its Elections & Politics Hub, an interactive platform featuring real-time tracking, data analysis, and insights.
This Election Hub allows users to monitor political, policy, advocacy and election developments as they unfold, with clear visuals, state-by-state breakdowns, and live updates. The HarrisX Elections & Politics hub is powered by the HarrisX Overnight Poll, which runs nightly 365 days a year, and allows clients to ask their own questions and conduct surveys alongside the findings of the Elections & Politics Hub.
A Commitment to Methodological Rigor Across Online, Phone, and In-Person Polling
HarrisX leverages best-in-class research methods to administer high-quality polling and ensure a representative sample of voters across online, phone, and in-person for our clients.
Our Elections & Politics Hub U.S. respondents are recruited through opt-in, web-panel recruitment sampling. Recruitment occurs through a broad variety of professional, validated respondent panels to expand the sampling frame as wide as possible and minimize the impact of any given panel on recruiting methods. Results are then weighted by age, gender, race/ethnicity, political party, education, income, and previous vote choice where necessary to align with actual proportions amongst the population of Registered Voters within each state.
HarrisX’s methodological rigor is showcased not only through these Election & Politics Hub results, but also through the firm’s ongoing work with the Harvard CAPS/ Harris poll, released monthly with The Hill; the bi-monthly HarrisX/Forbes poll which looks at the intersection of politics, society, and business; its recent in-person exit polling of over 12,000 voters in the 2024 parliamentary election in the country of Georgia with Mtavari Channel; and its 2024 in-person election polling in the Dominican Republic with Noticias SIM.
HarrisX’s pre-election polling in the Dominican Republic, conducted as Enquestas Mark Penn with Noticias SIM, called the race on the head with 57% for Luis Abinader, who was re-lected president. HarrisX’s comparative statistical analysis of its exit poll in Georgia and the official election results, concluded that the final results as published by the Central Election Commission (CEC) of Georgia are “statistically impossible”. The HarrisX findings have been cited by international media and the President of Georgia as potential evidence of voting irregularities in the disputed election outcome.
For more information on HarrisX’s election coverage and future initiatives, visit elections.harrisx.com.
About HarrisX
HarrisX is a leading public opinion research, data analytics, and strategy consulting company with offices in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada and Singapore. HarrisX conducts multi-method research in over 50 countries around the world on behalf of global leaders, Fortune 100 companies, public policy institutions, philanthropic organizations, media and NGOs. It was rated as the most accurate pollster is the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election by the Washington Post and American Research Group. HarrisX currently partners on public opinion polling with Harvard University (via the Harvard CAPS/Harris poll), The Hill Newspaper, Forbes Media, Deseret News and Variety. HarrisX is a proud member of Stagwell Inc. (STGW).
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